News Papers EDITORIALS - 25 NOVEMBER 2016

✌✌✌✌    THE HINDU    ✌✌✌✌

☝☝  By-elections as pointers   ☝☝

 Ruling parties enjoy an inherent advantage in by-elections, especially in States where Assembly elections were held only months earlier. Voters see little point in antagonising their rulers when there is no immediate prospect of a change in government. West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry had all gone to the polls in April-May this year, and the by-elections of last week were not expected to deviate from the general election trend. Even so, the huge victories of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the BJP in Assam, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress in Puducherry speak to renewed levels of enthusiasm for the ruling establishment. That ruling party legislators are better equipped to deal with constituency-level issues would not have been lost on the voters in the Assembly by-elections. In the by-elections to the Lok Sabha, the BJP won one each in Madhya Pradesh and Assam, but lost to the Trinamool in West Bengal. But even here, the BJP increased its vote share considerably, finishing ahead of the Left Front in Cooch Behar. While there is no doubt that the people have reposed their faith in Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, there was no logical basis to her explanation of the electoral outcome as a “people’s revolt” against the demonetisation move of the BJP-led government at the Centre. Regional factors related to the performance of State governments seem to have influenced the results, rather than any overarching theme. The results are no endorsement of the demonetisation decision either, as the BJP would like people to believe.

Besides the byelection in Thiruparankundram, Tamil Nadu had polls in Aravakurichi and Thanjavur, where elections had been deferred by the Election Commission following widespread distribution of cash for votes. Whether due to the demonetisation or the lower stakes in the deferred elections, there was reportedly a reduced flow of currency notes, and a less intense campaign. In Puducherry, the election was more important for the Congress than for any other party, as Chief Minister V. Narayanasamy was in the fray. A loss would have forced him to resign, and caused acute embarrassment to the party. In Tripura, which is under the rule of the Left Front, the CPI(M) had no difficulty in picking up Barjala and Khowai, wresting the former from the Congress. Amid the gloom induced by the results in neighbouring West Bengal, this provided some solace to the Left. But if there is one lesson to be drawn from this round of polling, it is that by-elections are not pointers to how an Assembly or Lok Sabha election will turn out, but the latter are usually good pointers to how by-elections will turn out.

☝☝  No country for the Rohingyas  ☝☝

new humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Myanmar after the military crackdown on “Islamist jihadists” in the Rakhine State, home to more than one million Rohingya Muslims. The military claims it began the counter-terror operation after three border security posts came under attack on October 9. But since then more than 130 people have been killed in the State and 30,000 displaced, triggering a new wave of migration of Rohingyas to neighbouring countries. The army denies targeting civilians, but satellite images taken after the start of the crackdown indicate that hundreds of buildings were burnt down; reports suggest that even those who tried to flee the country were shot dead. The migrants are not welcome in Myanmar’s neighbourhood either. The violence itself is not surprising given the record of persecution of the Rohingyas in Myanmar. Many in the Buddhist-majority country call them illegal immigrants from Bangladesh though they have been living in Rakhine for generations. Myanmar’s military started a systematic persecution of the Rohingyas in the 1970s when thousands were deported to Bangladesh. The rest were stripped of citizenship by the junta, which often used the Rohingya problem to drum up support for itself among the Buddhist majority.

What is surprising this time is the silence of the government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. Ms. Suu Kyi, the country’s de facto ruler, has not said much about the military operation in Rakhine, or spoken for the Rohingya cause. When her party took power in April, ending decades of military rule, many had hoped that it would signal the dawn of a new era of peace and democracy in Myanmar. But the government has been largely ineffective in tackling internal security and humanitarian issues. The operation in Rakhine shows the change of guard in government hasn’t brought any meaningful difference to Myanmar’s most disadvantaged sections. True, the army still remains a powerful institution. It controls the security, defence and border ministries besides wielding considerable economic power. It is also possible that the generals are escalating the conflict on their own. Even so, the government cannot remain in denial about the atrocities. Ms. Suu Kyi bears responsibility for what is happening in Rakhine now because her party rules, not the junta. For decades, Myanmar persecuted the Rohingya people while the world ignored their plight. By all accounts, that situation has not changed.

☝☝☝☝  THE ECONOMIC TIMES  ☝☝☝☝

☝☝  Demonetisation: Investigate unusual spurt in deposits  ☝☝ 

A graphic on this page on Thursday showed a steep increase of Rs 4.8 lakh crore in bank deposits in September over the August figure. This spurt, ahead of the demonetisation of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes announced on November 8, was not seasonal. It needs to be inquired into, to rid the demonetisation drive of a possible taint in the form of suspicion that some people took advantage of insider information. The Opposition is likely to point fingers at the ruling party but it would be strange, indeed, if those in the know of a move planned six months ahead waited till September to act. Information could have leaked out, if it did leak out, from the RBI or the printing presses. The matter calls for an explanation.

Initially, it had been suggested that the September surge was on account of disbursal of Pay Commission arrears. But that was only some Rs 34,000 crore. Spectrum auction proceeds accounted for another Rs 32,000 crore. Allow for some bunched subsidy payments. That would leave unexplained a jump in deposits of Rs 3 lakh crore. It is easy to establish if anyone took advantage of prior information of the demonetisation move and converted high-denomination notes into small-denomination ones. Look at the flow of big and small notes between the banks and the central bank in each of the major states over every quarter since April 2014. The RBI keeps track of this data. Former banker T R Ramaswami suggests, in a letter to the editor, an examination of the inflow of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes into the RBI and the outflow of Rs 50 and Rs 100 notes from the central bank to banks for five six-month periods, starting April 2014. If there is any break, in the first half of the current fiscal year, in the pattern of flow of big notes into, and of small notes from, the central bank, it would indicate foul play. If the pattern is the same from April 2014 onwards, that would rule out mischief.

It would be in the government’s interest to initiate an inquiry on the above lines, without waiting for the Opposition to raise the demand, or for the judiciary to order one, in response to a public interest litigation.